ANALISIS EFEKTIVITAS TRANSMISI MONETER GANDA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA
Abstract
Mekanisme perubahan kebijakan moneter hingga memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi disebut sebagai mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter. Indonesia menganut dual banking system yaitu bank syariah dan bank konvensional. Bank Indonesia selaku otoritas moneter mempunyai instrumen mekanisme transmisi syariah dan mekanisme transmisi konvensional.Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisa efektivitas mekanisme transmisi ganda melalui jalur syariah yaitu pembiayaan dan bagi hasil, sedangkan jalur konvensional yaitu kredit dan suku bunga dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dalam penelitian ini metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Eror Correction Model (VECM). Penelitian ini menggunakan data dengan periode 2008-2015. Proses pengujian data menggunakan uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, uji stabilitas, uji kausalitas, analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF), dan Forecast Eror Variance Decomposition (FEVD).Hasil penelitian ini menemukan variabel jalur syariah yaitu pembiayaan efektif dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Variabel bagi hasil dan SBIS tidak efektif dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Variabel jalur konvensional yang terdiri dari total kredit dan SBI tidak efektif dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan variabel suku bunga kredit efektif dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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