THE STOCK MARKET CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM THE JAKARTA STOCK EXCHANGE

  • Aang Anggara Economics and Development Study, Padjadjaran University Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
Keywords: Impulse response, Composite Stock Price Index, Transmission mechanism, VAR method

Abstract

Studies are scant of the stock market channel of monetary policy in emerging markets. I examine the effect of monetary policy on stock returns in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) from 2000Q1 to 2009Q4. This study used the vector autoregression method based on impulse response analysis. The results indicate that the response of the IHSG to growth returns, which are defined by a change in growth of real (M2) money supply and a change of real interest rate of SBI over one month, are negative. Besides that, the change of the IHSG returns respond negatively to changes in inflation. Other results from this study show that changes in the SBI rate over one month are not influential in affecting the stock market sufficiently to enable it to be an instrument of monetary policy.

References

References

Ang, Robert, 1997, ‘Buku pintar: pasar modal Indonesia’, First Edition, Mediasoft Indonesia

Bernanke, B and N Kuttner. (2005). ‘What explains the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy?’. Journal of finance, (60): 1221–1257.

Berument, H and Ali M Kutan. (2007). ‘The stock market channel of monetary policy in emerging markets: the evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange’. Scientific journal of administrative development, 5 I. A.D.

BI. (2003). Bank Sentral Indonesia ‘Tinjauan Kelembagaan, Kebijakan, dan Organisasi’ Edisi pertama. Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.

BI. (2011). Operasi Moneter, Suku Bunga SBI. Jakarta: BI

Chami, R, T Cosimano and C Fullenkamp. (1999). ‘The stock market channel of monetary policy’. International Monetary Fund. Working Paper.

Christiano et al. (1994). ‘The effects of monetary policy shocks : some evidence from the flow of funds’. NBER working paper 4699.

Daisy et al. (2010). ‘The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: evidence from Canda and the United States’. Elsevier. Journal of international money and finance, 29: 876–896.

Gilchrist, S and JV Leahy. (2002). ‘Monetary policy and asset prices’. Journal of monetary economics, (49): 75–97.

Gujarati, D. (2009). Basic econometrics (edn 5). McGraw Hill

Guo, H. (2003). ‘Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target’. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper.

Ioannidis, Christos and Alexandros Kontonikas. (2006). ‘The impact of monetary policy on stock prices’. Journal of policy modeling, (30): 33–53.

Lee, Bong-Soo. (1992). ‘Causal relations among stock returns, interest rates, real activity, and inflation’. Journal of finance,47:1591–1603.

Mishkin, F. (2010). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets (edn 9). Pearson

Mishkin, F. (2001) ‘The transmission mechanism and the role of asset price in monetary policy’. NBER working paper, 8617.

Rigobon, Roberto and Brian Sack. (2002). ‘Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market’. NBER working paper 8350.

Shubita, Dua’a. (2011). ‘Do stock react to monetary policy? Evidence from an emerging market’. Eurojournal. International research journal of finance and economics.

Thorbecke, Willem. (1997). ‘On stock market returns and monetary policy’. Journal of finance JSTOR.

Tobin, James. (1978). ‘Monetary policy and the economy: the transmission mechanism’. Southern economic journal, (44): 21–431.

Published
2016-10-06