EFEK THRESHOLD INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Penelitian terbaru menyatakan bahwa hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidaklah linier. Ketika inflasi melebihi ambang batas tertentu, akan berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki hubungan linear dan non-linear antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia menggunakan data panel provinsi. Hubungan linier diuji menggunakan panel fixed effect model sementara hubungan non-linear menggunakan panel threshold fixed effect model. Saat dilakukan uji secara linear, inflasi di Indonesia memiliki efek negatif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan rasio pengeluaran pemerintah dan pertumbuhan penduduk. Sementara pertumbuhan investasi dan pertumbuhan keterbukaan ekonomi memiliki efek positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ketika melakukan uji non-linear, inflasi di Indonesia berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya ketika melebihi 9,57 dan 9,59 persen. Sementara itu saat inflasi melebihi 5,09 persen, pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia melambat. Kebijakan pengendalian inflasi tetap harus dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak buruk inflasi, karena inflasi yang tinggi dan berfluktuasi tidak baik bagi perekonomian. Studi ini menyarankan pihak terkait seperti Bank Indonesia (BI) dan Tim Pemantauan dan Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID) untuk berhati-hati saat inflasi mulai melebihi angka 5,09 persen dan waspada saat inflasi melebihi angka 9,57 persen dan 9,59 persen.
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