PERAMALAN REALISASI PENERIMAAN ZAKAT PADA BAITULMAL ACEH DENGAN MEMPERTIMBANGKAN EFEK DARI VARIASI KALENDER
Abstract
Baitulmal Aceh merupakan sebuah lembaga pemerintah daerah Provinsi Aceh yang bertanggung jawab sebagai pengelola dan pendistribusi zakat, infak dan sedekah (ZIS). Peramalan potensi zakat pada masa yang akan datang dibutuhkan oleh Baitulmal Aceh sebagai salah satu landasan penyusunan kebijakan pengelolaan ZIS. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan potensi zakat yang terkumpul pada tahun 2018 dan 2019 dengan mempertimbangkan efek dari variasi kalender. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data realisasi penerimaan zakat bulanan mulai dari bulan Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2017 yang diperoleh dari Baitulmal Aceh. Data tersebut dianalisis dengan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) sebagai model pembanding. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMAX dengan orde ARIMA(2,0,2) (1,0,2)12, t, V1, ..., V11 jauh lebih baik daripada model SARIMA dengan orde ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 berdasarkan indikator ketepatan hasil ramalannya (RMSE dan MAPE). Realisasi penerimaan zakat pada tahun 2018 dan 2019 masing-masing diperkirakan sebesar Rp. 1.347.526.504 dan Rp. 1.359.728.268. Hasil peramalan tersebut dapat digunakan sebagai salah satu rujukan bagi Baitulmal Aceh dalam menyusun kebijakan pendistribusian zakat pada tahun-tahun yang akan datang.
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