POTENSI EKSPOR EKONOMI KREATIF TAHUN 2019
Abstract
Ekonomi kreatif (Ekraf) merupakan suatu sektor yang potensial menjadi sumber pertumbuhan terbarukan sebagai solusi pemerintah untuk mencegah memburuknya perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional beberapa tahun terakhir. Salah satu indikator sektor ekonomi kreatif yang memiliki kinerja baik adalah ekspor Ekraf. Mengingat ekspor merupakan salah satu komponen penyusun PDB maka peningkatan ekspor Ekraf dapat berdampak pada pertumbuhan PDB Ekraf yang kemudian akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Dengan demikian, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak ekspor Ekraf terhadap pertumbuhan PDB Ekraf melalui analisis tabel input-output (I-O). Selain itu, dilakukan peramalan ekspor Ekraf untuk mendapat data terbaru dalam melihat dampak ekspor Ekraf dengan pemodelan SARIMA. Hasil penelitian menyatakan bahwa model ARIMA(0,1,1)(2,0,1)12adalah model peramalan terbaik untuk ekspor Ekraf yang menghasilkan nilai ramalan di tahun 2019 sebesar 20,87 miliar USD. Berkaitan dengan hal tersebut, terdapat kenaikan ekspor sebesar 0,70 miliar USD atau setara 15,54 triliun rupiah dari tahun 2018. Tambahan ekspor sebesar 15,54 triliun rupiah ini akan memberikan tambahan tambahan NTB Ekraf sebesar 7,81 triliun rupiah. Dari tambahan tersebut, dihasilkan pertumbuhan PDB Ekraf akibat ekspor Ekraf pada tahun 2019 sebesar 0,71 persen, melambat 0,38 dari tahun 2018.Downloads
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