Ketahanan UMKM di Indonesia menghadapi Resesi Ekonomi
Abstract
Wabah COVID-19 telah membuat ekonomi Indonesia masuk episode resesi, yang ditunjukkan oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi (y-o-y) negatif selama 2 kuartal berturut-turut, yaitu Q2-2020 sebesar -5.32% dan Q3-2020 sebesar -3.49%. Penelitian ini menjelaskan bahwa usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) di Indonesia memiliki daya tahan yang cukup kuat dalam menghadapi resesi ekonomi. Penelitian ini mewawancarai 541 UMKM dari seluruh Indonesia selama Agustus-Oktober 2020 melalui telepon dan video call. Penelitian ini juga melakukan focus group discussion (FGD) dari beberapa responden yang disurvei. Berdasarkan analisa deskriptif ditemukan bahwa 19% UMKM sudah tidak dapat bertahan, 30% UMKM masih mempertahankan karyawannya, dan 51% lainnya masih dapat bertahan. Bantuan dari pemerintah baru dirasakan oleh UMKM yang memiliki kredit dari bank. Berdasarkan pengujian t-statistik, terjadi penurunan pada seluruh indikator kinerja UMKM akibat COVID-19. Penurunan signifikan terjadi pada modal kerja (-54%), tenaga kerja (-37 %), pendapatan bulanan (-34%), tanah (-2%), dan mesin dan peralatan (-3%). Sementara itu, penurunan beban oerasional bulanan (-21%) secara statistik tidak signifikan. Kegiatan FGD menyimpulkan bahwa UMKM yang bertahan adalah yang memiliki cadangan kekayaan (hidden wealth) berupa tabungan, atau asset bangunan dan kendaraan yang dapat dijual atau digadaikan. Disaster risk management (DRM) dan penyusunan business continuity plan (BCP) merupakan hal terpenting bagi UMKM sehingga dapat bertahan dalam kondisi kritis saat bencana terjadi. Pemerintah harus mulai membantu UMKM dalam penyusunan hal tersebut. Social bonds dapat menjadi instrumen alternatif bagi pemerintah, untuk mengatasi persoalan ini.
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